In recent years, millimeter wave radar has been widely used in China
As an industry researcher and investor, I have had the privilege of collecting a lot of fragments in recent years. Taking advantage of this summer night, I will put together my picture for everyone to see.
1. In ancient times
It is said that in the 1960s, car mounted radar had already begun research and development in the United States, with only one transmitter and one receiver at 10GHz, presumably built with separate components, and its usability was not very good. At least by the 1990s, the prominent giants of Japan, Germany, and the United States had already begun systematic research and gradually started using commercial vehicles. After 2010, shipments of A (Autoliv), B (Bosch), C (Continental), and D (Delphi) reached the tens of millions level. Of course, the ABCD statement is for the sake of memorization. In fact, Hella, Denso, Fujitsu, Tianhe, and Faurecia all have strong capabilities.
Market share of millimeter wave radar by various enterprises
Speaking of China, the first wave of people who developed millimeter wave radar in China were mostly from the military and military backed universities. Universities are mainly Southeast University, Xi'an University of Electronic Science and Technology, Chengdu University of Electronic Science and Technology, and Chinese Academy of Sciences. Most of what we do is also security radar, ship radar, and so on.
2. A cloud piercing arrow, thousands of troops and horses come to meet
It can be said that in 2014, Mobileye, which had been dormant for 10 years in research and development, entered the public eye with a market value exceeding billions of dollars, which can be said to have opened the enlightenment movement and the first year of science popularization for ADAS in China. In 2015, Baidu released its autonomous vehicle, shouting the slogan of "three years for commercial use, five years for mass production", which completely ignited people's beautiful imagination of autonomous driving, and various entrepreneurial teams emerged. With various discussions on L2, L3 and L4, the enthusiasm of people and the capital market quickly changed from ADAS to driverless driving, completing the shock of driverless driving from the automobile circle to the Internet circle. It took only a few months to complete the science popularization in the investment circle and the media circle. In this way, cameras, millimeter wave radar, and LiDAR became the focus of everyone's discussion.
3. It has to be said that Smart Micro
To a certain extent, Micro Smart is a prototype product for many radar systems in China. This German company provides a comprehensive solution for radar, and several traditional Tier 1 cars have purchased the solution from it, paying a high licensing fee. Later, it was discovered that there were still many "exciting" parts of millimeter wave radar, and the functions of vehicle mounted radar were also increasing. This business model of authorized production limits the flexibility of development and is increasingly unable to meet new market demands. Meanwhile, cost reduction under this business model is also a significant challenge.
4. Diversification of RF chips, Ti is expected to become the new winner
A few years ago, an article wrote that the 77G chip was banned, seriously misleading a large wave of people's views on the 77G. Now the giants have already taken a stand and started fierce competition. Infineon, Ti, ST, and NXP each have their own characteristics and produce loud sounds. Infineon said, 'I am the pioneer of the industry, and the Infineon Bosch alliance has shipped over 20 million pieces.'. Ti said that my CMOS process has high integration and cost-effectiveness, and I am willing to support you guys.
From the author's observation, Infineon is limited by the Infineon Bosch alliance and has limited domestic promotion. NXP's chips are also used sparingly due to their high prices. The main startup companies all adopt Ti's solution. From the perspective of product strength, the integrated solution reduces development difficulty and greatly lowers costs. On the other hand, Ti's active support and lobbying have also attracted a large number of supporters. The cost of chips generally falls within the range of 10-20 US dollars, and a higher cost-effectiveness may help Ti become a new winner.
Of particular note here is Xiamen Yixing. Domesticated chips, coupled with the automotive industry, are always difficult to get started, but product strength is the ultimate measure. Currently, the momentum is still good. Dr. Yang Shoujun from Xiamen Yixing started the research and development of millimeter wave radar front-end RF chips (MMICs) after returning to China from the automotive chip giant Infineon in 2011. Outstanding research and development capabilities quickly led to the release of the product. In 2015, when domestic radar and solution providers had not yet started, it was very difficult to only promote the chip market. Xiamen Yixing made various attempts, continuously sent samples, and patiently cultivated customers. At present, my feeling is that the company's transformation goal can be compared to Smart Micro, which is to turn the most difficult part of the radar into a solution, better develop support, lower technical barriers, and promote faster product implementation. The author believes that this approach of integrating downstream solutions is also the best choice for RF chip companies to survive and make breakthroughs in the current situation of the millimeter wave radar industry.
5. There are no less than 20 entrepreneurial enterprises, and they will soon usher in a wave of centralized financing
Without a doubt, the entire millimeter wave radar industry has been in a nurturing period for the past three years, and at least the next two years. Enterprises will be in a situation of burning money for research and development and patiently accepting projects from car manufacturers. The current situation is that there are no less than 30 radar departments in start-up and mature enterprises, and those who cannot obtain financing will face serious survival crises. During the peak of financing for millimeter wave radar in 2015-2016, some of the money raised was basically spent. Therefore, the author predicts that there will be a wave of financing for ADAS startups in the near future.
Nowadays, companies that produce millimeter wave radar can be basically divided into two categories: one is the product department newly established by existing automotive supply chain enterprises, and the other is the entrepreneurial team.
First, let's talk about the newly established product departments of automotive supply chain enterprises: China's automotive electronics industry, which I think can also be divided into southern and northern branches. The northern faction can be called the traditional automobile faction, mainly focused on the Yangtze River Delta, with more emphasis on safety, communication, and control. Nanpai can be called Electronic Pai or simply Car Machine Pai, mainly located in the Pearl River Delta. It has grown over the past decade by focusing on navigation and audio-visual entertainment systems, and has also been launched in recent years.
Traditional Tier1 focuses on the pressure of cost reduction every year, and the idea of digging a hollow hole is to promote new products and occupy a better position. Millimeter waves have become their easiest choice to understand. According to the announcement, Desai SV, Huayu Automotive, and Tongzhi Electronics are all actively laying out their strategies. Of course, there are also many companies that I am not convenient to disclose, and almost all of them are actively making technological reserves. The first idea of these companies is to buy solutions first, attempting to quickly build products and gain an advantage. But from the results, the progress of the product always falls short of expectations, and it seems that the mass production of the product is still facing difficulties, after all, the veterans of these enterprises are familiar with automotive electronics EMC， But when it comes to microwaves, talents are mostly in the military and communication industries, and traditional automotive electronics companies have never played with them. Once they get started, they always have to go through a few pitfalls. On the other hand, it is difficult to reduce costs. If we do forward research and development, it is still difficult to reserve talents. From RF, antenna, signal processing, to control strategy, we face a lot of investment and accumulation.
Moreover, the first batch of start-up companies in China that developed millimeter wave radar were mostly established between 2014 and 2016, with teams often having backgrounds in scientific research, military industry, or supplier job hopping and entrepreneurship. Like the Hai Gui faction: Sensitech, Hangzhou Zhibo. Research institutes dispatched: Xingyi Road, Nanjing Falcon Eye, Suzhou Anzhi, Suzhou Haomi Wave. Industrial transformation faction: Shenzhen Anzhijie, Shenzhen Chengtai, Hunan Nalei. There are also Eleda, Mu Niu, Lei Botec, and Shenzhen Zhuoying.
There are about 20 millimeter wave radar startups nationwide, and no less than 10 have received financing. The characteristics of these enterprises are also very obvious. Generally, those without a PhD are embarrassed to open a store. The research and development foundation is relatively strong, the execution ability is good, and the entrepreneurial mindset is often proactive development, tackling hard bones. The positioning is mainly focused on solution providers or directly aiming for the new Tier 1. The shortcomings of these enterprises are also very obvious. Firstly, they lack money. If they want to do a good job in millimeter wave radar, making a demo is quick, but they need to consider system construction, market promotion, vehicle adaptation, system design, calibration and stability, process difficulty and production stability, which requires an investment of over 50 million yuan. To be a Tier1, this is really the case. There is no rapid pace in the Internet industry. Only when the system is perfect and excellent enough can we open the door of the OEMs.
List of Major Millimeter Wave Radar Enterprises in China, Organized Based on Public Information
At present, according to the author's observation, the main companies in the industry that are mass producing and shipping are Shenzhen Anzhijie and Wuhu Sensitech. Anzhijie mainly tested the waters in the aftermarket and obtained thousands of orders of magnitude BSD and LCA radar shipments. According to the company's introduction, it has also obtained 2 domestic host factories and 4 designated projects. Sensitech has benefited from the strong support of Hikvision, and according to Hikvision's annual report on related party transactions, it has earned over 30 million yuan in revenue in the security field.
From: Hikvision 2017 Annual Report
6. Where exactly is the market? How big is the market really?
The millimeter wave market is always unpredictable. Through grassroots research, the author has an analytical approach: millimeter wave radar, currently in mass production applications, can be summarized as having forward ACC and AEB functions, and backward BSD and LCA functions. According to data from Mims Consulting, 41 million units were shipped worldwide. If a car uses an average of 2-3 pieces, which is more than 10 million vehicles, the global penetration rate is about 20%. Maims also said that the domestic shipment is 1 million pieces, which is about 500000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 3-5%.
In 2016, Maims Consulting estimated that the number of pre installed millimeter wave radars in Chinese cars reached 1.05 million, with 24GHz radars accounting for 63.8% and 77GHz radars accounting for 36.2%. The 24GHz radar is mainly used for blind spot detection (BSD), and the market demand comes from Chinese brand cars; The 77GHz radar is mainly used for adaptive cruise control systems (ACC), and some companies also use it for forward collision warning (FCW) and automatic emergency braking (AEB). According to the China New Car Assessment Program (C-NCAP), the Automatic Emergency Braking System (AEBS) will be included in the scoring system in 2018, so the demand for 77GHz radar will increase. Furthermore, looking ahead to the future, the smaller size and longer detection range of 77GHz radar will squeeze the market space of 24GHz radar.
The focus here is on analyzing the domestic millimeter wave radar market. With the five-star rating of C-NCAP and the implementation of the 1094 document on operating vehicles by the Ministry of Transport, China will enter a stage of rapid growth. In recent years, there is even a possibility of exponential growth. At present, the penetration rate has reached 5%. Based on experience, when a product breaks through the 5% penetration rate, it often enters a period of rapid growth. It is expected that by around 2020, if the market penetration rate can exceed 15%, the market shipment will exceed 3.75 million units. Front and rear view, the average value of a bicycle is 800-1000 yuan, and the market space is in the range of 3-5 billion yuan. If the assembly rate continues to increase, the market space will be even larger.
Internationally, the overall AEB configuration rate for new cars in the US market in 2017 was 19%. According to NHTSA's survey, only 19% of vehicles listed in the United States in 2017 were equipped with AEB automatic emergency braking systems. In terms of quantity, the largest is Toyota, a Japanese car manufacturer. Due to overall sales volume
Moreover, with 56% of vehicles equipped with AEB, out of the 2.5 million Toyota products produced in 2017, 1.4 million vehicles were equipped with AEB, which is much higher than the total number of other brands; The second place goes to General Motors, with 551777 of the 2.8 million vehicles produced in 2017 equipped with AEB, accounting for approximately 20% of the total; The third place goes to Honda, with about 30% of its cars equipped with AEBs, and 492330 out of 1.6 million cars equipped with AEBs.
In terms of proportion, among car manufacturers equipped with AEB systems, it is not surprising that the top few with higher ratios are all luxury brands. Among the cars produced in 2017, Tesla, the electric vehicle manufacturer, ranked first. Some of them were originally equipped with AEB, while others had the AEB system enabled through a cloud download system after leaving the factory. A total of 99.8% of Tesla's cars already have AEB function, including the 2017 Model S and SUV product Model X. In 2017, German car manufacturer Mercedes Benz also had up to 96% of its cars equipped with AEB, closely followed by Audi at 73%, Volvo at 68%, and BMW at 58%.
NHTSA announced the proportion of AEB configurations for each brand in 2017
Among the new car models in China, according to the configuration table of Autohome, it has been found that these joint venture car companies rely more on the safety function of forward braking in terms of the installation of forward and backward radar. Relatively speaking, American and Japanese cars are more advanced. Brands such as Mercedes Benz, Volvo, and Lynk&Co have already equipped their entire lineup with millimeter wave radar as standard. Fortunately, the configuration of millimeter wave radar has been extended to the mid-range of B-class cars, and the latest generation Camry is a case in point.
The configuration of millimeter wave radar models for each brand
According to Infineon's statistics, the following new car models in China have been equipped with BSD functionality.
List of BSD models assembled, source: Infineon
This section has undergone significant changes in writing style due to the use of a large amount of data. Overall, the author also observed that domestic manufacturers are generally involved in projects involving millimeter wave radar. It basically presents the idea of first tier host manufacturers setting international standards, learning from experience, and then seeking replacement. Second and third tier host manufacturers have even aggressively targeted domestic suppliers.
7. Cost effectiveness and emphasis on service may become a breakthrough weapon for domestic millimeter wave radar
Obviously, from the perspective of competitive landscape, the current focus of competition for domestic radar manufacturers is not on their domestic counterparts, but on the encirclement and suppression of international Tier 1. International Tier 1, mastering mature radar technology while also grasping key aspects such as chassis, braking, and control. It seems that the barriers to competition are unbreakable, and the market generally lacks confidence in domestic radar manufacturers.
The localization of reverse radar and car infotainment systems has great reference significance. Around 2010, the front assembly rate of reverse radar was less than 5%, and the market was almost dominated by Bosch and Faurecia. But with the breakthrough of Audi Wei in sensor technology in China, integrators such as Haoen quickly started, and local enterprises often have the advantages of strong service capabilities, fast response speed, and high product cost-effectiveness. Start with small customers, accumulate experience, expand scale, hone quality, and gradually seize important customers to grow. Looking back now, the front installation rate of reverse radar has reached a mature stage of 70%, and most of the top domestic independent brands have switched to domestic suppliers. Haoen has also taken a certain share from Volkswagen this year.
Based on the experience of localizing reverse radar and car infotainment systems, we believe that the localization of millimeter wave radar will definitely come, and cost-effectiveness and emphasis on service may become the breakthrough weapon for domestic millimeter wave radar. Surrounding cities from rural areas is currently the most reasonable approach. Currently, the international Tier 1 has become alert and has directly set prices to a low profit model, with less emphasis on development costs than before. However, the main focus of international Tier 1 is on first tier car manufacturers, and small and medium-sized car companies with shipments of around 200000 units are in a vacuum zone. By surrounding cities from rural areas, Tier 1 in China will first train its team, achieve large-scale production, and improve quality. At that time, Tier 1 in China will adapt to the characteristics of numerous car models from domestic automakers, and its advantages in cost-effectiveness and heavy service will be fully utilized, which is expected to enter the supply chain of first tier car companies. After all, with such fierce competition, cost reduction will always be the theme that OEMs are tightly grasping.
The author believes that once the quality of domestic Tier 1 is recognized and it establishes a foothold in the host factory, the flexibility of localized research and development will become a major advantage. In recent years, the progress of Tier 1 in China is still worthy of recognition. Although there is still room for improvement in original technology, the ability to develop applications is a strong point of Tier 1 in China.
8. Millimeter wave in China in recent years
The years that millimeter wave has been working have been years of competition, years of forging ahead, and years of ups and downs. In the future, there will be several years of land grabbing, years of growth and departure for some, years of vigorous rise of domestic production and crazy suppression of giants.
Looking back on the years of millimeter wave radar, it always makes people yearn for the years when reverse radar and car infotainment systems appeared. As a Chinese citizen and investor, I also hope that domestic enterprises can seize the opportunity in the wave of automotive intelligence and gradually grow into large companies.
